In my last post, I suggested that you not panic.
I’ve had to reread that to myself a few times since then, as the situation in which the world finds itself lends itself to that particular emotion. Amid reports that some colleges are beginning to plan for the possibility of not opening for in-person instruction in the fall, I can only imagine the panic not only of current high school seniors and their parents, but of the colleges themselves.
Literally no one knows what the next school year will bring, making planning very difficult to say the least. However, that does not mean that planning is impossible. In terms of whether colleges will be open for classes in September, I am hesitant to guess. But, in terms of what I expect current high school juniors to be facing, I think I have a better idea. There is good news and bad news depending on your circumstances.
Here are a few things that I am sure about.
1. Fewer students will apply to college.
There will be fewer applicants everywhere. Even if application deadlines change, which I expect them to, the level of uncertainty in the world is going to decrease the number of applications from international students. Similarly, lots of rising seniors in America are going to rethink their own plans, both for financial and personal reasons. I’ll be writing about that soon, but for now, suffice to say that there is going to be a significant dip in applications everywhere.
2. Colleges are desperate.
Colleges are feeling more desperate than at any time in the past thirty years. The pandemic has both increased their costs and decreased their revenue, from almost every source. Schools have all transitioned to online learning, so they have to keep paying professors their full salaries. At the same time, they’ve had to refund thousands upon thousands of dollars to students for room and board that they are no longer supplying, even though they have to continue to spend money on taking care of their facilities.
Some schools have large endowment funds that provide a source of revenue, but with the stock market collapse, many of these funds have seen a 25% decrease in the past month and a half. All schools also rely on donors, but donations are drying up everywhere as all Americans are facing a financial crunch. Many schools also rely on revenue from their sports teams, but the NCAA cancelled March Madness and college football looks increasingly unlikely. More families are struggling financially, so the need for financial aid is increasing while the ability to pay for it is decreasing, and some families are simply going to withdraw, costing tuition dollars. If international students also withdraw, that will cause huge problems for most schools as most international students pay full tuition.
3. Standardized tests will likely become optional.
Almost all schools are not going to be able to use standardized test scores and are going to be test-optional. With the SAT and ACT cancelled until at least the fall, most students have not yet taken the test; and depending on when applications are due, there is no guarantee anyone will be able to take the test in time. Schools that have hitherto (SAT word, ironically) required SAT subject tests are universally waiving them, and I expect that by the time applications are due, nowhere will require tests.
4. Grades this spring won’t be as important.
So many high schools around the country have switched to Pass/Fail grades rather than numbers and letters that grades from this spring are going to be essentially meaningless. In other words, the semester which is traditionally the most important in terms of college admissions is suddenly going to be the least important.
So, which students benefit from this?
I don’t like my answer from an ethical perspective, but that does not change it: this is going to have a huge benefit for students who do not need financial aid and can afford to tell colleges that. “Need blind admissions,” where financial aid decisions are made separately from acceptances, are going to be practically impossible almost everywhere next year. When well-off universities like Duke are publically talking about financial worries, you can bet that colleges everywhere are facing them, mostly to an even greater extent. If you’re well-off, you’re probably in even better shape for admissions than you might normally be.
This also benefits students who are not good test takers and had strong sophomore year grades. If your school has gone to Pass/Fail that is not your fault, and the colleges can’t hold it against you. So, in order to figure out who is the best, they’re going to have to look at the data they have, which is going to help anyone who struggled this year.
However, the biggest benefit will be, I believe, to students who write kickass college essays. In fact, I doubt that college essays have ever been or will ever be more important than they will be this year. Lacking other data, that is what colleges will have to rely on, and the decrease in overall applications will likely mean that more time is spent on reading each application.
I think that the next month will bring a great deal more clarity about what the school year next year might look like nationally. But, I think that for those who might normally be preparing for standardized testing right now, your best bet is to ignore all of that for the time being and focus on coming up with topics for your essay.
I’ve written about this extensively in the past (here, here, and here), but I’ll be coming out with more material soon. I’ll give you one easy piece of advice, however: whatever you do, don’t write about the coronavirus in your essay! Everyone is going to do that, and while it might become of historical interest in the long run, it isn’t a good idea for admissions in the present. Unless you find a cure. That, I think it is safe to say, you can write about, while you’re simultaneously preparing your Nobel Prize acceptance speeches for the awards in medicine, peace, and perhaps even economics.
If you need help with that, or anything else, feel free to contact me at rkirschmann@columbiacollegeconsulting.com. Stay healthy!
Mr. K
Y O U M I G H T A L S O L I K E :
These three things will help you figure out the introduction of your college application essay.